Michigan State Preview 2015
#12 Michigan, 5-1, entertains undefeated #7 Michigan State in a 3:30 kickoff on October 17. Michigan leads the series, 68-34-5, but the Spartans have won 6 of the last 7 meetings including two in a row that were both played in East Lansing. #23 Michigan eaked out a 12-10 victory in 2012 over the unranked Spartans in Ann Arbor. Michigan leads the series at Michigan Stadium, 34-18-3, and is 49-20-3 over the Spartans at Ann Arbor. The two teams didn't truly begin playing a home and home series until 1958; the Paul Bunyan Trophy began in 1953 with Michigan ahead 35-25-2. Since 1950, when both teams are ranked, Michigan is 6-9-1 against their intrastate rival; the only time a Michigan team defeated a higher ranked MSU team was in 2003 when the #9 Wolverines defeated the #7 Spartans, 27-20. In 1958, the #16 Wolverines tied the #4 Spartans, 12-12. Mark Dantonio is 6-2 against the Wolverines, the best winning percentage of any Spartan Coach in this rivalry (Duffy Daugherty was 10-7-2 from 1954-1972); there is no game that Coach Dantonio and the Spartan faithful want to win more than this one each year. This is Jim Harbaugh's first game in the conflict, but he broke his arm in the 1984 Spartan game.
On offense, Senior Quarterback Connor Cook is 97 of 162 or 1334 yards, 12 TDs and been picked twice, and has run for 68 yards in 19 attempts after 4 sacks were deducted. Cook has led the offense to 80% efficiency in the red zone with 64% touchdowns in 25 trips, and is 50% on 3rd down conversions; he is 29-3 as the Spartan starter, the winningest quarterback ever at MSU. Michigan State is averaging 31 points per game which is 3rd in the Big Ten. We will need to pressure Cook in obvious passing situations, and gain hurries and sacks. Junior Tyler O'Connor is Cook's backup. His target is Senior Aaron Burbridge; he has 34 receptions for 4 TDs, and averages 93 yards per game and 16 yards per catch. Jourdan Lewis will be covering him most of the game; this will be Lewis' toughest assignment so far this season. R.J. Shelton will be covered by Jeremy Clark; he has 17 catches for one TD. Senior Slot McGarrett Kings will be covered mostly by Jabrill Peppers; he has 14 catches for one TD. Senior Transfer from Tennessee, DeAnthony Arnett, is a capable backup with 2 TDs as is Junior Monty Madaris. Juniors Josiah Price and Jamal Lyles are the tight ends; they have 12 catches total between them with Price hauling in 4 TDs. Senior Paul Lang is their backup; he has 6 catches. Delano Hill, Joe Bolden, and Desmond Morgan will be on cover with their tight ends. Our defensive line must stop the Spartan running attack which is led by Freshman L.J. Scott who has 70 carries for 418 net yards for 6 TDs. Redshirt Freshman Madre London has 95 carries for 399 yards, and 3 TDs so combined they average 136 yards per game and 2 TDs. Junior Delton Williams is now playing more due to the ankle injury to London. Michigan State's offensive line is solid, and led by Senior Center Jack Allen; he'll be matched up against Ryan Glasgow and Maurice Hurst most of the day. The Spartans lead the Big Ten with only allowing 4 sacks in 6 games. Junior Jack Conklin is the Left Tackle, and Jack's "little brother, " Brian is the Left Guard; they'll get reacquainted with Matt Godin and Willie Henry. On the Right Side, Senior Donovan Clark is their Right Tackle and Junior Bennie McGowan is their Right Guard; they'll be matched up against Chris Wormley, Willie Henry, and Taco Charlton. Look for Michigan to line up Charlton at the Weak Side Defensive End to try to expose the Left Tackle injury weakness of MSU; I think the Spartans will have a hard time handling Henry, Glasgow, Wormley, and Charlton with their re-vamped offensive line, and protecting Cook in the "pocket." Redshirt Freshman David Beedle and Junior Kodi Keeler are two reserves who'll probably see action due to injuries, but Keeler's knee is not 100%. Senior Fullback Trevon Pendleton leads the way for the running backs. Time of possession will be a key factor in this game as will be turnovers; the Spartans rank 2nd in the Big Ten with a +8 in turnover margin.
The strength of the Spartan team is on defense; they have 21 sacks in 6 games, and always have extra motivation when the see Maize and Blue. They have a menacing defensive line led by Senior All-American Defensive End Shilique Calhoun; Mason Cole and Joe Kerridge will have their hands full with Calhoun, and we'll probably need to go to a double team in many passing situations. Sophomore Demetrius Cooper is a backup defensive end who gives Calhoun a "breather." Senior Joel Heath is the Spartan Defensive Tackle; he is backed up by Redshirt Freshman Craig Evans. Garrett Glasgow will have his "hands full" with Sophomore Nose Guard Malik McDowell, a converted defensive end. Senior Damon Knox will rotate in at Nose Guard. Erik Magnuson will duel with Senior Strong Side Defensive End Lawrence Thomas. We have got to protect Jake Rudock, but he'll have to make quicker, smarter decisions because he won't have much time to do so. If Rudock goes down, Shane Morris has had no reps this season. Guards Kyle Kalis and Ben Braden will be chasing Linebacker Riley Bullough and Senior STAR Darien Harris as they fill the gaps. Bullough has 55 tackles with 4 quarterback hits and 3 sacks. They are backed up by Freshman Andrew Dowell and Sophomore Shane Jones. Amarah Darboh and Jehu Chesson will run routes against Junior Darian Hicks and Senior Arjen Colquhoun. The Spartans are so thin at cornerback as a result of injuries, they may pull the redshirt off Freshman Josh Butler. Jake Butt, Ian Bunting, A.J. Williams, and Khalid Hill will be covered by Sophomore SAM Jon Reschke, and Safeties Montae Nicholson, a Sophomore, and Junior Demetrius Cox. Junior Jermaine Edmondson backs up at safety, and Sophomore Chris Frey backs up at SAM.
On special teams, Michigan State has Junior Michael Geiger as their placekicker with Saline's Taybor Pepper snapping the ball; Geiger is 5 of 9 in field goals with a 47 yarder, and 23 of 24 in extra points. Junior Kevin Cronin handles kickofss with a 58 yard average. Redshirt Freshman Jake Hartbarger is the Spartan punter; he has a 42.7 yard average with 9 punts of over 50 yards in 22 attempts, and 8 downed inside the 20. McGarrett Kings is the Spartan punt returner. R.J. Shelton, Freshman Khari Willis, and L.J. Scott are deep threats on kickoffs for Michigan State; Shelton only averages 19.5 yards per return in 10 tries this season. Due to John Baxter, we have a great advantage this season in special teams. Our kickoff and punt coverage has been great, and we have exceeded expectatations on kickoff and punt returns. I'm confident that Kenny Allen can outkick Geiger and Cronin, and that Blake O'Neill outpunts Hartbarger. It would be a bonus if Jabrill Peppers runs one back on a punt return which could happen.
Michigan State hobbles into this one with many injuries: Jack Allen (knee), Jack Conklin (knee), Vayante Copeland (neck-season), Ed Davis (knee-season), Dennis Finley (broken Tibia/Fibula-season), Darian Hicks (concussion), McGarrett Kings, Madre London (ankle), Josiah Price, Lawrence Thomas, and R.J. Williamson (bicep). Injuries mount for Spartans Mounting Injuries Drain Spartan Depth Michigan has also had some injuries losing starter Mario Ojemudia and backup Nose Tackle Bryan Mone along with some others including Michael McCray, Channing Stribling, Wyatt Shallman, DeVeon Smith, T.J. Wheatley, Chase Winovich, etc. Neither team will make any excuses in this one; injuries are part of this game. In the last 47 games, the team who had the most rushing yardage won 43 times so without any doubt the running game will be a huge factor in time of possession. Home field advantage and the Harbaugh coaching factor will be a big factor for the Wolverines.
For Michigan State to win, they need to score early breaking Michigan's shut out streak, and count on their stout defense to force at least one Wolverine turnover. If the Spartans can get an early lead, they may be able to count on their defense to hold off Michigan as the Wolverines have struggled offensively, and haven't proven they can come from behind as the Utah game disclosed. I don't see MSU coming from behind if Michigan gets an early lead especially not in the 4th quarter with the Wolverine defense wearing down the Spartan offensive line. If Jake Rudock goes out, the Spartans chances to win this one increases dramatically. For Michigan to win, they'll need to count on their defense to thwart the Spartan attack, and use their running game to dominate time of possession; the best defense is a time of possession offense. If Michigan gets a two score lead early like they did against Northwestern, the Spartans won't be able to get back in the game. If this game comes down to a field goal, neither team has shown that they can depend on their placekicker to pull them through although Kenny Allen is gaining confidence. The home field advantage should be huge for the Wolverines especially early in the game. It will be in the 40s with swirling wind so special teams play will give the Wolverines an advantage as well. It'll be the Wolverines in a "thriller."
Michigan 17 Michigan State 13
Other Predictions: TheWolverine.com ESPN Michigan Daily MLive FREEP Detroit News Lansing State Journal MGoBlog
Game Notes for MSU (MSU Game Notes for Michigan) Michigan Depth Chart MSU Depth Chart
Jim Harbaugh Press Conference on October 12 Players Mark Dantonio Press Conference on October 13