NCAA Wrestling Championships Preview 2016--March 17 Update

The 2016 season has run its course with a variety of dual meets, open tournaments (Midlands, Southern Scuffle, Cliff Keen, etc), and Conference Qualifying Championships. Now, the "Big Dance" is set at Madison Square Garden. There are 63 returning All-Americans of the 330 qualifying wrestlers all hoping to be among the 80 recognized podium winners at this year's championships. Here is my preview of the 3 day event:

Nathan Tomasello, returning NCAA Champion 125 lbs. for the Buckeyes

125 lbs.

Ohio State's #1 Nathan Tomasello is the returning champion and undefeated; he has two wins over #3 Nico Megaludis of Penn State who finished runner-up in 2013, placed 3rd in 2014, and redshirted in 2015 to boost his chances for a title in 2016. Tomasello's closest bouts this season have been with Megaludis, Dance and Youtsey. Last year's runnerup, Zeke Moisey of West Virginia, qualified on a "wild card," but could not participate due to injury. All-American Conor Youtsey of Michigan sports the worst record of any qualifier, 12-13, at this weight; he has lost many close bouts to the top ranked wrestlers: Tomasello, Dance, Gilman, Rios-Bresser, Lambert, and twice to Oliver. #2 Joey Dance of Virginia Tech, #4 Thomas Gilman of Iowa, #6 Eddie Klimara of Oklahoma State, #7 Darian Cruz of Lehigh, and #9 Dylan Peters of Northern Iowa are other returning placewinners at this weight. Dance has the second longest streak of 16 wins in a row. One of the most improved wrestlers at this weight is #5 Ryan Milhoff of Oklahoma; he will be hoping for an upset to earn podium honors along with #8 Barlow McGhee of Missouri, #10 Connor Schram of Stanford, #11 Ronnie Rios Bresser of Oregon State, #12 Paul Petrov of Bucknell, #13 Tim Lambert of Nebraska, #14 Josh Rodriquez of North Dakota State, #15 David Terao of American, and #16 Elijah Oliver of Indiana. From the brackets, one could expect great quarterfinal matchups with Tomasello vs. Bresser, Milhoff vs. Gilman, Rios-Bresser vs. Megaludis, and Dance vs. Cruz-Schram. The final may be Gilman-Dance, Tomasello-Dance or even McGhee-Dance, it'll be tough to predict. This is a very well-balanced weight with some great athletes, and no one wrestler is clearly dominating; however, Tomasello is the clear favorite. Iowa's title aspirations rest on crowning at least one champion, and Gilman may have the best chance of any wrestler in their 2016 stable. Tomasello edged Gilman, 3-2, in 2015, but they have not met this season. Gilman's only loss in 2016 has been on tiebreaker to Megaludis. Dance is riding a 14 bout winning streak after losing to Tomasello, 5-4, in December. Dance edged Megaludis, 4-3, back in November. McGhee upset Peters for the MAC Championship as he avenged an earlier season loss; however, Tomasello beat McGhee by major decision in December. Cruz has lost twice to Megaludis, but defeated Millhof in December. I'm going to pick an upset here with Gilman defeating Tomasello in the semis, and then beating Megaludis in the finals avenging his tiebreaker loss, 4-3, at the Big Ten's last week.

Returning Placewinners

Nico Megaludis of Penn State

Predicted Placewinners

133 lbs.

At 133 lbs., #1 Nahshon Garrett of Cornell is the favorite; he is undefeated, 32-0. #4 Cody Brewer looks to repeat; the Four-Time Missouri State Champion from Kansas City is now a Senior, and he'll be looking for his fourth All-American award after he overachieved in 2015 coming in as the #13 seed. Brewer beat #2 Cory Clark of Iowa, 11-8, in the 2015 Finals. Garrett beat Brewer, 14-9, in December. Other returning placewinners include Mason Beckman of Lehigh, #12 Brad Taylor of Wisconsin, Rossi Bruno of Michigan, #5 Jordan Conaway of Penn State, and #8 Earl Hall of Iowa State. #3 Zane Richards of Illinois, #6 George DiCamillo, #7 Eric Montoya of Nebraska, #9 McGuire of Kent State, #10 Johnni DiJulius of Ohio State, #11 Dom Forys of Pittsburgh, #13 Cameron Kelly of Ohio, #14 Geoffrey Alexander of Maryland, #15 Josh Alber of Northern Illinois, and #16 Anthony Giraldo of Rutgers are other threats to earn a spot on the All-American podium. Dalton Brady of Arizona State is riding a 15 bout winning streak. The Big Ten has 10 qualifiers of 33 contestants, and really stands out for podium honors with the exception of Garrett and Clark. This weight should have two entertaining semi-final bouts with Garrett-Brewer and Clark-Richards; both outcomes will be hard to predict. I'm going to pick Brewer to gain revenge over Garrett in the semis, and go on to win his second title.

Returning Placewinners

Cody Brewer, returning NCAA Champion 133 lbs.

Predicted Placewinners

141 lbs.

At 141 lbs., this weight is quite unpredictable without one or a few dominating wrestlers. This one will depend on who wrestles the best in this 3 day event. #1 Dean Heil of Oklahoma State has only been defeated by #8 Joey Ward of North Carolina, but has also won several close bouts with others including two tiebreaker wins over #2 Joey McKenna of Stanford. Heil and Ward look to connect in this year's quarterfinals. #5 Kevin Jack of North Carolina State was one of the big surprises from 2015, but now he's expected to be on the podium. Other podium returnees include #9 Richard Durso of Franklin & Marshall, #12 Chris Mecate of Old Dominion, Unseeded Jimmy Guilbon of Penn State, and #4 Big Ten Champion Anthony Ashnault of Rutgers. Durso comes into the tournament on a 16 bout winning streak, and Jack has won 17 in a row. #5 Matt Manley of Missouri, #6 Micah Jordan of Ohio State, #7 Solomon Chishko of Virginia Tech, #10 Thomas Preston of Harvard, #11 Tommy Thorn of Minnesota, #13 Steve Bleise of Northern Illinois, #14 Bryce Meredith of Wyoming, #15 Brock Zacherl of Clarion, #16 Randy Cruz of Lehigh will all be in the hunt for podium honors. Zacherl is riding a 19 bout win streak. You can bet that Coach Sanderson will have Guilbon ready for an opening round bout with #5 Manley with the team championship as special motivation. Ashnault-Manley/Guilbon, McKenna-Chishko, and Jordan-Jack all look to be other great quarterfinal matchups. Keep your eye on is Tommy Thorn of Minnesota; he will be looking to avenge a loss last week to Micah Jordan at the Big Ten's, and if he does, he'll then look to avenge a loss in November to Kevin Jack, 10-4. Thorn lost to Heil and Ward at the Scuffle, 10-7, and 4-3. Thorn beat Ashnault in January, 8-1. Also, another guy to watch is Freshman Solomon Chishko; he has two recent losses to Jack, 3-2, but has gained a lot of confidence with his improvement this season. I'm going out "on a limb" to predict a Jack-Ashnault final with Ashnault being the surprise champion. Jack beat Ashnault, 5-2, at the Midlands in December. Ashnault is great defensively, and has show improved confidence after winning a Big Ten title last week.

Nahshon Garrett of Cornell

Returning Placewinners

149 lbs.

At 149 lbs. #1 Zain Retherford of Penn State is the most dominant wrestler in NCAA for 2016; I don't see anyone beating him for the title. #2 Brandon Sorenson of Iowa, #3 Lavion Mayes of Missouri, 2014 NCAA Champion #6 Jason Tsirtsis of Northwestern, #7 Jake Sueflohn of Nebraska, #8 Evan Henderson of North Carolina, B.J. Clagon of Rider, and #15 Dan Neff of Lock haven are returning All-Americans at this weight. Clagon and Henderson lock horns in the opening round. #4 Matt Cimato of Drexel, #5 Alec Pantaleo of Michigan, #9 Justin Oliver of Central Michigan, #10 Mike DePalma of Kent State, #11 Anthony Collica of Oklahoma State, #12 George Martinez of Boise State, #14 Mitch Finesilver of Duke, and #16 Patricio Lugo of Edinboro are all seeded wrestlers looking for a spot on the podium. Cimato has a 10 bout winning streak, Martinez has won 16 in a row, Neff has won 19 in a row, and Oliver just had a 17 bout winning streak ended by DePalma in the MAC Championship. Collica a will need to grab a spot on the podium for the Cowpokes to be a threat for the team title. Clagon, Collica, and Sorenson have given Retherford his toughest bouts this season with 2-1, 4-1, and 4-0 decisions.

Penn State's Zain Retherford is on top much of the time

Returning Placewinners

Nolf pinned Martinez in a dual meet

157 lbs.

Most observers expect a Big Ten Finals matchup between #1 Isiah Martinez of Illinois, 2015 NCAA Champion and #3 Redshirt Freshman Jason Nolf of Illinois. Other returning NCAA Placewinners include #4 Ian Miller of Kent State, #8 Nick Brascetta of Virginia Tech, and #12 Brian Murphy of Michigan. North Carolina State's #2 Thomas Gantt, #5 Dylan Palacio of Cornell, #6 Joe Smith of Oklahoma State, #7 Cody Pack of South Dakota State, #9 Richie Lewis of Rutgers, #10 John Boyle of American, #11 Luke Smith of Central Michigan, #13 Edwin Cooper of Iowa, #14 Austin Matthews of Edinboro, #15 Chad Walsh of Rider, and #16 Markus Scheidel of Columbia are leading podium contenders. Gantt is undefeated, 24-0, and handled Brascetta twice, Pack, Boyle, Cooper twice, and Walsh. The quarterfinal matchups of Nolf vs. Jo Jo Smith will be a rematch of an earlier, 7-3, win by Nolf. Nolf and Gantt haven't yet met this year, but could meet in the semis. Martinez and Ian Miller are looking to meet in the other semi-final. Miller is not 100% due to a knee injury, and had to earn this trip to New York on a "wild card." This could open the door for Brian Murphy or Dylan Palacio to earn a semi-final matchup with Martinez. Murphy almost beat Martinez in the Big Ten Semi-Final a week ago. I'll pick a Martinez-Nolf final with Martinez prevailing in the "rubber match" as he did at the Big Ten's.

Returning Placewinners

Isaiah Martinez, 2015 NCAA Champion

Predicted Placewinners

165 lbs.

At 165 lbs., #1 Alex Dieringer, 28-0, of Oklahoma State is the clear favorite to win his 3rd title. Returning All-Americans at this weight include undefeated #2 Isaac Jordan of Wisconsin, #3 Bo Jordan of Ohio State, #7 Anthony Perrotti of Rutgers, and #13 Jim Wilson of Stanford. Top Seeded contenders include #4 Daniel Lewis of Missouri, #5 Max Rohskopf of North Carolina State, #6 Steven Rodriques of Illinois, #8 Chad Welch of Purdue, #9 Tanner Weatherman of Iowa State, #10 Austin Wilson of Nebraska, #11 John Staudenmayer of North Carolina, #12 Connor Brennan of Rider, #14 David McFadden of Virginia Tech, #15 Clark Glass of Oklahoma, and #16 Devon Gobbo of Harvard. Gobbo has won 16 bouts in a row. Unfortunately, Perrotti left the Big Ten Championships due to injury in his semi-final bout with Isaac Jordan, and had to medical forfeit to sixth place so he probably won't be 100%. Perrotti pinned Chad Welch in the 2nd period of his quarterfinal bout. Perrotti lost to Isaac Jordan in the dual, 4-0. Daniel Lewis gave Dieringer perhaps his toughest bout of the season losing, 4-3; they are predicted to face off again in the semifinals along with the Jordan cousins. The Wolfpack's Max Rohskopf has perhaps the best shot at beating Lewis to face off against Dieringer. In the end, I don't see anyone defeating Alex as he captures his 3rd title.

Returning Placewinners

Alex Dieringer goes for his 3rd NCAA Championship

Bo Jordan of Ohio State

Predicted Placewinners

174 lbs.

At 174 lbs., #1 Bo Nickal of Penn State has only one loss this season to #12 Nate Jackson of Indiana, 7-6, in a Janauary dual. Nickal defeated #2 Brian Realbuto of Cornell, 14-7 at the Southern Scuffle. Other returning All-Americans at this weight include #4 Ethan Ramos of North Carolina who lost to Nickal, 11-7, also at the Southern Scuffle; #8 Zach Epperly of Virginia Tech also went down to Nickal, 6-2, in November. There are the least returning All-Americans at this weight than any other in this year's championships. The leading seeded contenders include #3 Blaise Butler of Missouri, #5 Zach Brunson of Illinois, #6 Bryce Hammond of Cal.State-Bakersfield, #7 Cody Walters of Ohio, #9 Chandler Rogers of Oklahoma State, #11 Myles Martin of Ohio State, #13 Alex Meyer of Iowa, #14 Nick Kee of Appalachian State, #15 Brian Harvey of Army, and #16 Micah Barnes of Nebraska. Bryce Hammond is riding a streak of 11 wins in a row. Iowa has a chance to boost their team title hopes with an improved performance by Meyer in New York; if he can upset Ramos in the quarterfinals, then he'll get a rematch with Brunson who pinned him at 2:00 at the Big Ten's last week. Meyer pinned Brunson at 7:00 in their only previous matchup January 16, 2015. The team title could come down to the matchups between Nickal vs. Rogers at 174, and Dean vs. Boyd at 184 in the quarterfinal session. If Rogers is able to pull off an upset, he could make the finals. The Butler-Realbuto semi should also contribute to an "electric" Friday sessions for the quarters and semis. Realbuto defeated Butler, 3-2, in a January dual, he also beat him at the 2014 NCAA Championships in overtime, 3-1, and pinned him at 7:19 in their December 9, 2013 bout. I'll go with Nickal over Realbuto in the final.

Returning Placewinners

184 lbs.

At 184 lbs., Michigan's #1 Gabe Dean, wrestling for Cornell, is the returning champion opting not to take an Olympic redshirt for 2016. There are 10 returning placewinners of the 33 competitors, most of any weight wrestled in 2016. #3 Vic Avery of Edinboro, #10 Nate Brown of Lehigh, Jack Dechow of Old Dominion, #6 Blake Stauffer of Arizona State, Kenny Courts of Ohio State, #11 Lorenzo Thomas, #14 Willie Miklus of Missouri, and #7 Tim Dudley of Nebraska are returning All-American NCAA Placewinners. #2 Sammy Brooks of Iowa, #4 Domenic Abounader of Michigan, #5 Zac Zavatsky of Virginia Tech, #8 Nolan Boyd of Oklahoma State, #9 Mat Miller of Navy, #12 Hayden Zillmer of North Dakota State, #13 Pete Renda of North Carolina State, #15 Nick Gravina of Rutgers, and #16 Matt McCutcheon of Penn State will challenge for podium honors. Because this weight is so tough, every bout should be fun to watch. Boyd is the only blemish on Dean's record this season as he took him down, 14-9, last month; they are scheduled to meet at this year's quarterfinals. Boyd has won 14 in a row. Nate Brown has defeated Vic Avery twice in previous meetings, 4-3 and 2-1, in 2014. I'm not voting against Gabe Dean, he's my pick for Champ over Brown in the final.

Junior Gabe Dean, a Lowell, Michigan Native will try to repeat in 2016 before challenging Jake Herbert, Ed Ruth and former teammate Kyle Dake for an Olympic spot in April

Returning Placewinners

197 lbs.

At 197 lbs. #1 Morgan McIntosh of Penn State is undefeated this season. #3 J'Den Cox of Missouri won the title in 2014, but placed 5th last year. #5 Conner Hartmann of Duke, #4 Nathan Burak of Iowa, and #10 Max Huntley of Michigan are other returning placewinners. #3 Brett Pfarr of Minnesota, #6 Jared Haught of Virginia Tech, #7 Brett Harner of Princeton, #8 Aaron Studebaker of Nebraska, #9 Reuben Franklin of Cal.State-Bakersfield, #11 Phil Wellington of Ohio, #12 Michael Boykin of North Carolina State, #13 Jacob Smith of West Virginia, #14 Zach Nye of Virginia, #15 Nate Rotert of South Dakota State, and #16 Kyle Conel of Kent State are all seeded contenders for the podium. Ryan Wolfe of Rider has a 14 bout winning steak with his first bout vs. McIntosh who he lost to 10-1 in December. Iowa is hoping to land Nathan Burak into a repeat of the Big Ten Final with a different outcome as McIntosh vs. Burak are predicted for the semis, but Duke's Conner Hartmann may have something to say about that; he defeated Burak, 4-2, in overtime in a previous meeting. Brett Pfarr has only lost to Burak in overtime 3-1, McIntosh 3-2, and Cox 4-1, since moving up from 184. I don't see anyone beating McIntosh as he is too tough to score on. I've got McIntosh over Cox in the finale.

Morgan McIntosh will try to strap on a NCAA Championship in 2016

Returning Placewinners

285 lbs.

Last year's two finalists return in #1 Senior Nick Gwiazdowski of North Carolina State who'll be going for his 3rd title in a row, and #5 Junior Adam Coon of Michigan; however, they won't meet again in the finals since they are slated for a possible semi-final matchup. #2 World Champion Kyle Snyder has moved up to 285; he was runner-up at 197 in 2015. Conor Medbery of Wisconsin decided to take an Olympic redshirt year. #3 Junior Ty Walz of Virginia Tech has beat Coon twice this season. Walz has a tough opening round matchup with Tanner Hall of Arizona State who he beat 6-5 at the Virginia Duals earlier this season. Oklahoma State returns #4 Junior Austin Mardsen who was seeded #4 at last year's event, and placed 8th in 2014. Minnesota returns #9 Sophomore Michael Kroells. In all, six All-Americans return at this weight. #6 Denzel Dejournette of Appalachian St., #7 Amarveer Dhesi of Oregon State, #8 Max Wessell of Lehigh, #10 Joe Stolfi of Bucknell, #11 Sam Stoll of Iowa, #12 Billy Smith of Rutgers, #13 Jared Johnson of Tennessee-Chattanooga, #14 Blaize Cabell of Northern Iowa, #15 Tanner Harms of Wyoming, and #16 Nathan Butler of Stanford are other podium candidates. It was announced on the eve of the tourney that Blaize Cabell would not participate due to illness. Dhesi comes in with a win streak of 13 in a row since losing to Adam Coon, 4-2, in January. Dhesi could give Snyder quite a quarterfinal battle since he is lighter, quicker, and more agile than most heavyweights than Snyder has faced. Marsden has only lost one bout all season, 7-4, to Gwiazdowski in December, and he holds a win over Adam Coon, 7-4, at the 2015 Southern Scuffle. Marsden has won 20 in a row after losing to Gwiazdowski on December 6. Ty Walz also has a tough matchup if he gets past Hall, but Walz won the last one in January, 5-2. Iowa can move up in the team title race if Sam Stoll can upset Dejournette in the second round to set up a possible quarterfinal with Walz. I see an interesting final between Gwiazdowski and Snyder, and Snyder may have met his match with Gwiz who is pretty good on his feet; I'll predict 3 in a row for Gwiz who'll leave Snyder as a World Champion, but twice NCAA Runner-Up.

Returning Placewinners

Nick Gwiazdowski

Predicted Placewinners

Team

Penn State is expected to have 4 Champions: Morgan McIntosh, Zain Retherford, Jason Nolf, and Bo Nickal with 6 All-Americans including Conaway and Megaludis with Guilbon as other podium possibilities. Oklahoma State has a sure Champ in Dieringer, and Heil is seeded #1; however, they sport mostly question marks and possible All-Americans with Klimara, Collica, Joe Smith, Rogers, Boyd, and Marsden depending on how they wrestle in New York. Iowa hopes that Thomas Gilman, Cory Clark, and Brandon Sorenson earn spots in the finals, and that Alex Meyer, Sam Brooks, Nathan Burak, Edwin Cooper, and Sam Stoll are on the higher level of the podium. Virginia Tech has no favorite for a Champion, but does have a contingent of All-American candidates with Dance, Brascetta, Epperly, and Walz having opportunities to make the finals. Ohio State could put Nathan Tomasello and Bo Jordan in the finals with Johnni DiJulius, Micah Jordan, Kenny Courts, and a few others with All-American shots. If Cornell's Gabe Dean, Nahshon Garrett, and Brian Realbuto earn births in the finals, and they get a boost from Dylan Palacio, Duke Pickett, and others could also challenge for the Top 3. Missouri also has a chance to make the Top 6 if they have outstanding performances from J'Den Cox, Blaise Butler, Daniel Lewis, Barlow McGhee, and others who could be in the finals. Rutgers and Nebraska were the only other schools other than Oklahoma State to have all 10 wrestlers qualify for the event. Penn State, Iowa, Cornell, Lehigh, and Missouri had 9 each. Virginia Tech, North Carolina State and Ohio State had 8 each. Michigan, Central Michigan, and North Carolina qualified 7 each while Arizona State, Stanford, Oklahoma, Illinois, Rider, and Edinboro qualified 6 each. I think the team title battle will be a lot closer than most people think. All the matchups between Penn State and Oklahoma State which could include Megaludis-Klimara, Guilbon-Heil, Retherford-Sorenson, Nolf-Smith, Nickal-Rogers and perhaps others in consolation bouts may decide the outcome.