Capital One Bowl Preview

Michigan arrived in Orlando with several distractions facing the team: the final game for Lloyd Carr after 13 years as a head coach, assistant coaching changes, possible player transfers, a two game losing streak, etc. Florida has a stable coaching situation with one of the recognized top head coaches in NCAA football, Urban Meyer, winning the national title in 2007, and finishing the season with a four game winning streak averaging nearly 50 points per game in those four games with Sophomore Heisman trophy winner Tim Tebow's leadership.

On offense, Florida leads the nation in passing efficiency. Tebow is the #2 most efficient quarterback in the country in a spread offense which is something that Ron English and Jim Herrmann's Wolverines have been unable to stop. Tebow averages 70 yards per game, scores 22 touchdowns, and he throws and hands the ball to one of the finest all-purpose athletes in NCAA football in Percy Harvin who averages 5 receptions and 78 yards per game plus 60 yards rushing per game. Tebow also finds receivers, Senior Andre Caldwell, Junior Louis Murphy and Junior Tight End Cornelius Ingram who contribute another 11 receptions and 158 yards in receiving yards. Kestahn Moore contributes another 47 yards per game in rushing. Overall, Florida is ranked #14 in the nation in total offense with 462 yards per game (7.1 yards per play) and they are ranked #4 in scoring offense with 43 points per game. The Gators have a 56% 3rd and 4th down conversion percentage, and convert 75% of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns, 88% of red zones into scores. They will be difficult to stop or even slow down; the only hope appears to be their self-destruction in turnovers, forced or unforced. Their offensive line has only allowed 8 sacks, and blocks well enough to generate 198 yards in rushing per game ranking them #26 nationally.

On defense, the Gators are tough against the run which happens to be Michigan's strength offensively. Florida is ranked #11 nationally against the rush allowing 99 yards per game. Florida is susceptible to the pass, and allows 249 yards per game since most teams are way behind and need to throw in an effort to catch up (since they can't run); however, the Gators average 2 sacks and 7 tackles for loss per game working mostly in prevent packages. Sophomore Linebacker, Brandon Spikes, leads the defense with 118 tackles, 14 for loss, 7 pass break ups, 2 fumble recoveries, 1.5 sacks, a quarterback hit and a forced fumble. Former Michigan Defensive Coordinator and current Gator DC, Greg Mattison, will be prepared for whatever Mike DeBord dishes out; he will have his defense prepared to stop Mike Hart and our running attack. Our offense is only ranked #74 in total offense and #68 in scoring offense, and there is no evidence that Senior Chad Henne is anywhere near 100% for his final game. An optimist would think that a healthy, rested Wolverine offense would be ready for a young Gator defense starting mostly Freshmen and Sophomores; however, there are no factors pointing to Henne, Hart & Company providing us with a 500+ yard offensive finale. For Michigan to have a chance to win, they must establish a running game and time of possession advantage to keep the ball away from the dangerous Gator offense, and they have not been able to do this against quality opponents in 2007.

On special teams, Sophomore Brandon James is one of the nation's finest returners; he averages nearly 18 yards per punt return ranking him #2 nationally and another 28 yards per kickoff return ranking him #16 nationally. James generates 123 yards of total offense per game which helps the Gators establish excellent field position for Tebow & company. Their field goal and extra point specialist, Senior Joey Ijjas, has converted 10 of 13 field goal and 67 of 68 PAT opportunities. Their punter, Chas Henry, has an average of 39.3 yards with 14 of 34 punts downed inside the 20; the Gators net punting is ranked #10 nationally. This speaks to the speed of their flyers to cover. On the dark side, the Gators do take a lot of penalties, and average 63 yards per game.

Florida's losses came to arch-rival, Georgia 30-42 in Jacksonville, at LSU 24-28 and at home against Auburn 17-20. Georgia sacked Florida 6 times, forced 3 Gator turnovers for a +2 turnover advantage, held the Gators to 5 of 12 in 3rd and 4th down conversions including 2 of 4 in the red zone, 107 yards of net rushing and held a 5 minute time of possession advantage to prevail. Florida say LSU rally in Baton Rouge after holding a 24-14 lead in the 4th quarter. Similarly, the Tigers held a +2 turnover advantage, sacked Tebow twice and held the Gators to 156 net rushing yards as they held nearly a 12 minute time of possession advantage resulting in a 32 offensive play advantage including 12 of 15 minutes in the final quarter. Auburn executed a great Tuberville game plan, and a stout defense that limited the Gators to 111 yards in net rushing in creating a 6 minute time of possession advantage that resulted in a 15 offensive play advantage as they held off a late Gator rally that had tied the game with 3:32 to go. I don't think Michigan's defense is capable of this kind of heroic effort against a spread offense since they haven't shown up all year, and I can't have confidence in a running game that couldn't get it done against quality opponents when we needed this kind of effort.

It would be a mammoth upset if Michigan prevails, and sends Lloyd Carr out a winner. Big Ten versus SEC, isn't this a matchup that is supposed to result in a speed advantage for Florida? This is not the same Michigan football program that invaded Orlando in the 2003 Capital One Bowl and came out faster, quicker and hungrier in a 38-30 triumph over the Gators. I have never predicted a Michigan blow out, and even though Florida is an 11 point favorite and playing a virtual home game, my prediction is regretfully (I hope I'm wrong):

Florida 38 Michigan 30